NFL Survivor Picks
Every Week 7 matchup ranked by win probability, by its share of the week's total edge, and by what each team is worth on the rest of their schedule. Built for survivor and eliminator pools — pick one team a week, never repeat, last entry standing wins.
Auto: 37% toward saving elites for Week 7. Early weeks protect your best teams; by Week 15 it is pure survival.
| Used? | # | Team / matchup | Pick | Pick score | Spread | Win prob | Win share | Rest of season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOUTexansTop pickvs Giants | 8.2 | HOU -10 | 80% | 16.2% | 5.5 | ||
| 2 | NYJJetsvs Dolphins · division | 5.8 | NYJ -4.5 | 68% | 9.3% | 1.9 | ||
| 3 | MINVikingsvs Colts | 5.3 | MIN -6.5 | 70% | 10.7% | 6.1 | ||
| 4 | DENBroncosat Cardinals | 4.6 | DEN -4.5 | 68% | 9.3% | 6.5 | ||
| 5 | LARRamsat Raiders | 4.2 | LAR -4.5 | 66% | 8.7% | 6.8 | ||
| 6 | CARPanthersvs Buccaneers · division | 4.1 | CAR -3.5 | 62% | 6.5% | 3.9 | ||
| 7 | PITSteelersat Saints | 3.8 | PIT -3.5 | 62% | 6.2% | 4.5 | ||
| 8 | DALCowboysTrapat Eagles · division | 3.4 | DAL -4.5 | 66% | 8.4% | 7.7 | ||
| 9 | CLEBrownsat Titans | 3.0 | CLE -1.5 | 54% | 2.3% | 1.3 | ||
| 10 | SF49ersat Falcons | 2.5 | SF -3 | 61% | 5.8% | 9.4 | ||
| 11 | DETLionsvs Packers · division | 2.3 | DET -3 | 59% | 5.0% | 8.7 | ||
| 12 | CHIBearsvs Patriots | 2.2 | CHI -3 | 58% | 4.4% | 7.4 | ||
| 13 | BALRavensvs Bengals · division | 2.1 | BAL -3 | 57% | 3.8% | 5.8 | ||
| 14 | SEASeahawksvs Chiefs | 2.0 | SEA -2.5 | 56% | 3.4% | 8.4 | ||
| 15 | TENTitansvs Browns | 1.0 | CLE -1.5 | 46% | — | 0.3 | ||
| 16 | KCChiefsat Seahawks | 0.4 | SEA -2.5 | 44% | — | 9.7 | ||
| 17 | NEPatriotsat Bears | 0.2 | CHI -3 | 42% | — | 8.1 | ||
| 18 | ARICardinalsvs Broncos | 0.0 | DEN -4.5 | 32% | — | 1.0 | ||
| 19 | ATLFalconsvs 49ers | 0.0 | SF -3 | 39% | — | 2.3 | ||
| 20 | CINBengalsTrapat Ravens · division | 0.0 | BAL -3 | 43% | — | 7.1 | ||
| 21 | GBPackersTrapat Lions · division | 0.0 | DET -3 | 41% | — | 5.2 | ||
| 22 | INDColtsat Vikings | 0.0 | MIN -6.5 | 30% | — | 4.8 | ||
| 23 | LVRaidersvs Rams | 0.0 | LAR -4.5 | 34% | — | 4.2 | ||
| 24 | MIADolphinsTrapat Jets · division | 0.0 | NYJ -4.5 | 32% | — | 0.0 | ||
| 25 | NOSaintsvs Steelers | 0.0 | PIT -3.5 | 38% | — | 3.2 | ||
| 26 | NYGGiantsat Texans | 0.0 | HOU -10 | 20% | — | 1.6 | ||
| 27 | PHIEaglesvs Cowboys · division | 0.0 | DAL -4.5 | 34% | — | 3.5 | ||
| 28 | TBBuccaneersTrapat Panthers · division | 0.0 | CAR -3.5 | 38% | — | 2.6 |
Texans is the play at 80% (HOU -10). They're 16% of this week's total edge.
Your picks
The teams you've chosen, week by week. Will you survive?
Optimal path
The projected best route from here to the end of the season with the teams you have left, no team repeated. 21% chance this route survives the next six weeks
Teams you've used
0 used · 32 still available. Click the X on a team to free it back up. Saved in your browser.
How to use this tool
A survivor pool is simple to explain and hard to win: pick one NFL team to win outright each week, and if they lose you are eliminated. The catch is that you cannot use the same team twice, so the Chiefs you spend in Week 2 are gone when you need them in Week 15.
Most survivor tools stop at win probability, which is why so many entries die in November holding nothing but bad teams. This board adds two things on top of the raw odds:
- Win share — each team's slice of the entire week's edge, with the full slate normalized to 100%. A share above 30% means one team clearly stands out. A top share under 20% means nobody separates from the field, which is the week to spend a mid-tier team rather than an elite one.
- Rest-of-season value — all 32 teams ranked by how much usable schedule they have left. A high score is a team you would regret burning today.
The slider decides how hard the board weighs saving strong teams against simply winning this week. Early in the season it defaults toward protecting your elites; by the final weeks it shifts to pure survival, because there is no later left to plan for.
Common questions
What is the best NFL survivor pick for Week 7?
The top-rated Week 7 NFL survivor pick on this board is the Texans, at a 80% win probability. That ranking weighs the odds of winning this week against what spending that team costs your survivor pool entry in later weeks, so it will not always match the biggest favorite on the slate.
How does an NFL survivor pool work?
In an NFL survivor pool — also called an eliminator or knockout pool — you pick one NFL team to win outright each week. No point spread is involved: your team just has to win. If they win, you advance to the next week. If they lose, you are eliminated. The catch that makes survivor pools hard is that you cannot pick the same team twice all season, so every NFL survivor pick you make removes an option from your future weeks.
Should my NFL survivor pick always be the biggest favorite?
No, and this is the most common way survivor pool entries die. Spending an elite team in Week 2 because they are a two-touchdown favorite often leaves you with nothing usable in Weeks 12 through 16, when most NFL survivor pools are actually decided. This tool scores every NFL survivor pick on win probability and on what that team is worth over the rest of their schedule, so you can see the cost of burning a strong team early.
How do I keep track of which teams I have used in my survivor pool?
Tick the Used box next to any team, or hit Pick to record them for a specific week. Teams you have already spent are greyed out and pushed to the bottom of the board on every other week, and they appear in the Teams You Have Used section with the week you used them. Your NFL survivor picks are saved in your browser, so the board remembers them when you come back.
What does win share mean on this survivor board?
Win share is a team's slice of the entire week's edge. Every game on the slate is normalized so the week adds up to 100%. A win share above 30% means one team clearly stands out from the field and is the obvious NFL survivor pick. A top win share under 20% means nobody separates themselves, which is usually a good week to spend a mid-tier team and save your elites.
What is rest-of-season value?
Rest-of-season value ranks all 32 teams by how much usable schedule they have left after the current week — how many genuinely favorable matchups remain and how good their single best remaining week looks. A high score is a team you would regret burning on this week's NFL survivor pick, because you will want them later.
How often are these NFL survivor picks updated?
Lines, win probabilities and the full board refresh several times a day throughout the week, so your NFL survivor picks reflect the latest odds. Weeks that sportsbooks have not posted lines for yet are projected from team power ratings and marked "est" on the board.
Is this NFL survivor pick tool free?
Yes. The full NFL survivor pool board, the week-by-week planner and the optimal path are free to use, with no account required.